How Elon Musk’s $1m giveaway could hand Trump the presidency

The CEO’s multi-million dollar intervention into the election has been called unethical and potentially illegal. Could it change the result?

In an election campaign rich in dramatic moments, Elon Musk’s actions over the weekend still raised eyebrows. 
At an event in the swing state of Pennsylvania, Musk, the world’s richest man, with an estimated wealth of $246bn (£190bn), announced he would be giving away $1 million (£774,000) per day to registered voters in seven key states who had signed a petition for his America PAC (political action committee). 
To many, it looked a lot like an attempt to indirectly bribe potential Republican voters into registering. Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, said it was “deeply concerning” and something law enforcement should “take a look at”. 
Mr Musk replied by saying it was “concerning that he would say such a thing”.
While experts debate the legality of the scheme, with just 12 days to go until the election, a more pressing question for many is whether Musk’s money will help generate more support for Donald Trump. Musk has a devoted following of predominantly young men – a group that tends to vote Republican, if they vote at all. By increasing the number of registered voters or turnout (or both) among that demographic, he could help tip the scales in Trump’s favour.  
In such a tight race, with most prediction markets at 50-50, even a tiny number of voters could sway the result. 
“In an election this close, anything could make a difference, so Musk’s intervention could be that difference,” says Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos, the polling company. “It will be hard to prove it statistically but if it literally comes down to the wire then it will be important.”
Musk’s money may already be helping. According to Google Trends, in the hours after Musk made his announcement, searches for “register to vote” surged in Pennsylvania. Searches for “Elon Musk petition” peaked even higher, particularly in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada – four of the seven states Musk has targeted, along with Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.
But they will have to be quick. With election day fast approaching, registration deadlines are closing. According to vote.org, the deadline has already passed in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. In Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan it’s still possible to register until 5 November.
That leaves quite a short window – meaning candidates and their supporters are increasingly shifting their focus to getting those that are already signed up to vote to exercise that right. 
The races are so tight that even a few thousand votes could be crucial. According to a recent YouGov poll, 25 percent of men think Musk’s endorsement of Trump will “help a lot” vs only 16 percent of women who think the same. Gallup research has also shown that men are becoming more conservative than women.
Registration is one thing, but actual voter turnout is quite another. Official US census data shows there is a historic gap between registered voters and actual votes cast. Although that gap has been closing in the last decade, it still persists in some groups – most notably between men and women.
In 2020, 65.1 per cent of all men were registered to vote in the presidential election held that year. But only 59.5 per cent of them ended up actually casting a ballot. The difference, 5.6 points, makes up what is known as the turnout gap and is equal to 6.87 million “missed” votes. For women, it was 5.2 points, or 6.81 million votes. In Michigan and Pennsylvania – two highly contended swing states – the turnout gap for men is much larger, at 7.1 and 6.2 respectively. 
Urging men to vote and closing that gap could make the difference in 2024. Analysis by The Telegraph suggests that, if all registered male voters in swing states actually voted and did so as they typically would in their state, Georgia would have gone to Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden four years ago. Such an outcome would not have changed the overall result of the election, but would have proved sufficient to make a big dent in Biden’s electoral college numbers, leaving it at 290 to 248 for Biden vs Trump instead of 306 to 232. In other swing states, it would also have affected Biden’s winning margins.
Last month, Telegraph data showed how Taylor Swift’s endorsement could help Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris, win. The figures around Musk’s intervention are not as dramatic, but it’s clear that together with other tactics, increased registration and turnout among young men would benefit the Republican candidate.
Defending his scheme, Musk has said he wants to encourage voters to support the First and Second Amendments to the US constitution, which guarantee free speech and the right to bear arms, respectively.
America PAC’s website states it was “created to support these key values: Secure Borders, Safe Cities, Sensible spending, Fair Justice System, Free Speech, Right to Self-Protection.”
“We want to try to get over a million, maybe two million voters in the battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment,” Musk said at the event in Pennsylvania. “We are going to be awarding $1 million randomly to people who have signed the petition, every day, from now until the election.
“I think [it] sends a crucial message to our elected politicians,” he added. Musk has already donated $75 million (£58 million) to the America PAC himself. He handed the first novelty $1 million cheque out on-stage on Saturday to a man identified as John Dreher. The money may not be directly affecting votes, however: according to reports, the first three recipients of Musk’s money had all already voted. But the data suggests that any uptick he can achieve in registration will help Trump.
To be eligible for the $1 million, voters must be registered in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, seven swing states where polling indicates the race between the two candidates is on a knife-edge.
The America PAC petition also offers $47 (£36) to every voter who signs up and the same again for referring another registered voter to do so. That figure goes up to $100 (£77) in Pennsylvania, the ultimate battleground state, which does little to dispel accusations that Musk is interested in the election outcome as well as the petition itself. 
It is a federal offence to pay people to vote or register to vote. This includes not just cash, but anything of monetary value, including lottery tickets or alcohol. The penalty can be a $10,000 fine or five-year prison term. Paul Schiff Berman, the Walter S. Cox professor of law at the George Washington University, told the BBC he believed Musk’s offer “is likely illegal”. 
But it is not cut and dry. Musk’s team seems confident they have found a workable loophole. Brad Smith, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission (FEC), said he thought Musk was on the right side of the line. “He’s not paying them to register to vote,” he told reporters. “He’s paying them to sign a petition – and he wants only people who are registered to vote to sign the petition. So I think he comes out OK here.” 
Regardless, not everyone is convinced Musk’s intervention will make much difference. Whit Ayres, a veteran political consultant and President of North Star Opinion Research, says: “I have no idea what Musk’s strategy is or if whatever he’s doing will be effective.”
But Iwan Morgan, emeritus professor of US Politics at UCL, says the billionaire’s scheme is part of a long history of private money influencing American politics. 
“When I heard about the giveaway I thought ‘this is a real upgrade of a good old American tradition’,” he says. In the 19th century, before secret ballots, elections were controlled by big political machines, such as Tammany Hall in New York – the main machine of the local Democratic Party. Direct payments were common; “They would pay or induce people to vote,” says Morgan. “Sometimes it was a direct payment, sometimes it would be payment in kind, food or coal in the winter.” 
In Musk’s largesse, something of the old ways appear to be returning. “It’s worrying that the super rich are beginning to deploy their super wealth in ways that are challenging to democratic ideals,” says Morgan. “Private money has always made a difference. [But] Musk is taking it into entirely new territory. These tech giants are getting more involved in politics because they distrust democracy in all its messiness, and they want to get a government that will deregulate and that enables them to advance their vision of the technocratic future.
“Nobody knows what effect the giveaway will have. There is no proof of correlation, but I think two days after Musk announced it, Trump took a very, very small lead in Pennsylvania, 0.2 per cent, for the first time since Harris became the Democratic nominee.”  
Ken Danieli, a Republican political analyst and former brand strategist for Pepsi, disputes any notion that Musk has strayed into illegality.
“What Elon Musk is doing in Pennsylvania is certainly not a crime,” he says. “Elon believes he’s at great risk if Donald Trump doesn’t win because [he thinks] the Democrats will go after him. 
“I can’t tell you how many Left-wingers have told me they don’t like Elon Musk because he’s the guy who brought free speech back [on Twitter/X]. For his part, Elon is doing this because he believes Trump will stand up to the deep state and big tech.”
Musk obviously believes it is worth a shot. He has been an outspoken supporter of Trump’s campaign, appearing on stage at events with the Republican nominee. Trump has claimed Musk might even accept a role in his government if he is elected.
With less than a fortnight to go until the election, his giveaway will cost him around $20 million, or 0.008 per cent of his net worth. For all his eccentric political pronouncements, the leader of SpaceX and Tesla has helped bring about revolutions in rocketry and electric vehicles. Earlier this month, SpaceX performed the first catch-landing of a rocket booster, an ingenious feat. 
“I hate politics,” Musk said at the launch event in Pittsburgh. “I just like building stuff. And making products that people love.” If he is able to treat the Presidential election as just another engineering problem, it would be risky to bet against him.
The Telegraph approached Elon Musk for commentAdditional reporting by Tom Teodorczuk